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Ice Lab

Tue, Nov 14, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise

Dallas Stars 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.

FLA winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
DAL110218011041343
FLA2904116002429

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:13FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:23FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:50DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 10:56DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
  5. P2 12:03DALRemi ElieAssists: Jason Spezza, Martin Hanzal · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–2
  6. P3 2:55FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mike Matheson, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
  2. 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
  3. 3. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
  4. 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
  5. 5. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
  6. 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:11DALDevin Shore: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 11:43DALGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:39DALJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:58DALGreg Pateryn: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 19:58FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 1:09FLAMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 7:05FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 12:38FLAJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 12:38DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 0:51DALJason Dickinson: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 9:18DALAlexander Radulov: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
46% to win54% to win
← DAL attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Benn
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALFLA
43Shots on goal29
2.6Expected goals2.5
57Shot attempts49
32Faceoffs won32
2Power plays5
17Penalty minutes11
15Hits13
8Blocked shots8
10Giveaways20
4Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestRadulov – Benn – Janmark11:20

    xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0

  2. Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa5:15

    xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  3. Spezza – Hanzal – Elie6:46

    xG 0.27–0.41 (39%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0

  4. Seguin – Shore – Dickinson10:51

    xG 0.16–0.53 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestHamhuis – Pateryn13:53

    xG 0.75–0.43 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1

  2. Klingberg – Lindell16:21

    xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0

  3. Johns – Oleksiak12:18

    xG 0.01–0.78 (1%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:38

    xG 0.50–0.24 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0

  2. McGinn – Sceviour – Bjugstad7:03

    xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

  3. Vrbata – Trocheck – Hunt9:03

    xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1

  4. Haley – Brickley – Valk2:58

    xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPysyk – Matheson14:10

    xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0

  2. Weegar – McCoshen10:50

    xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1

  3. Yandle – Ekblad15:50

    xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.5 xGDAL 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLADAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 77/100 · #316 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.89 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +29 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 52% of the time.

FLA winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).