Tue, Nov 14, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Edmonton Oilers 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 17 | 112 | 224 |
| EDM | 313 | 111 | 48 | 832 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28EDMOscar KlefbomSHAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 17:42EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 18:39EDMPatrick MaroonGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Yohann Auvitu · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 10:19EDMMatt BenningAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 14:41VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Tomas Nosek, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 0:57EDMConnor McDavidPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 1:22VGKJames NealAssists: Colin Miller, David Perron · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 4:58EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 9:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Milan Lucic, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–7
- P3 15:38EDMMark LetestuPPAssists: Zack Kassian, Jujhar Khaira · Snap, 0.13 xG2–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:07EDMYohann Auvitu: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:10EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:10VGKDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 15:55VGKJon Merrill: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00VGKJames Neal: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:09EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P3 13:11EDMPatrick Maroon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:04VGKDavid Perron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:13EDMYohann Auvitu: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Perron – Haula11:20
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch10:08
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Carrier – Bellemare – Nosek8:41
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:31
xG 0.16–0.73 (18%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – McNabb14:46
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt12:24
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
- Engelland – Schmidt2:49
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:36
xG 0.94–0.24 (80%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Caggiula7:36
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pakarinen – Strome – Khaira7:59
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi11:07
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning12:33
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Russell – Auvitu13:54
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Larsson – Nurse17:48
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).