Wed, Nov 15, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Boston Bruins 2, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 011 | 115 | 116 | 242 |
| ANA | 111 | 23 | 113 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:26ANAKevin RoyAssists: Nick Ritchie, Sami Vatanen · Slap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 8:38BOSDanton HeinenAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Riley Nash · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:24ANAJosh MansonAssists: Corey Perry, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:13ANANick RitchieGWGAssists: Antoine Vermette, Josh Manson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 2:35ANADerek GrantAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 19:38BOSNoel AcciariAssists: Riley Nash, Brandon Carlo · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P3 10:52ANAKorbinian Holzer: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:52ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – DeBrusk – Acciari10:11
xG 0.89–0.09 (90%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Heinen9:52
xG 0.80–0.42 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Cehlarik – Pastrnak15:27
xG 0.67–0.68 (49%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Beleskey – Nash – Acciari2:43
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Carlo2:06
xG 0.50–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Postma – Miller9:04
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo13:23
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Roy – Ritchie13:37
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Wagner13:12
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Perry – Grant – Rakell13:03
xG 0.56–0.94 (37%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Megna11:22
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Manson16:37
xG 1.07–0.98 (52%)attempts 17–19goals 3–0
- Beauchemin – Montour17:57
xG 0.61–1.33 (32%)attempts 14–28goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).