Thu, Nov 16, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 312 | 011 | 432 |
| NYI | 314 | 08 | 314 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:21NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Andrew Ladd, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:57NYICal ClutterbuckSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 17:30CARElias LindholmPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:31NYINick LeddyAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 2:54CARNoah HanifinAssists: Jordan Staal, Jeff Skinner · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 11:19CARDerek RyanAssists: Brett Pesce, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- P2 19:08CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 7:22NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Anders Lee, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 15:35NYIJohnny BoychukGWGAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Slap, 0.02 xG4–5
- P3 18:42NYIJordan EberleENAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:09CARJosh Jooris: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:49NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:23NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:06CARJosh Jooris: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:49NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:31CARNoah Hanifin: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho11:46
xG 0.77–0.27 (74%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe – Jooris4:30
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan12:14
xG 0.71–0.65 (52%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm12:17
xG 0.59–1.00 (37%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce14:29
xG 1.13–0.49 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin14:30
xG 0.97–0.97 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Faulk – Fleury14:48
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas8:35
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee11:40
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal11:28
xG 0.62–0.63 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier8:14
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy15:20
xG 0.92–0.43 (68%)attempts 14–14goals 3–0
- Hickey – Pulock13:57
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- de Haan – Pelech15:33
xG 0.85–1.27 (40%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).