Thu, Nov 16, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Washington Capitals 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 014 | 17 | 19 | 230 |
| COL | 210 | 18 | 310 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:17COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 19:53COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:25COLColin WilsonGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.27 xG0–3
- P2 18:36WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 4:59COLGabriel LandeskogUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 9:01COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 13:11WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: T.J. Oshie, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 19:34COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–6
Penalties (20)
- P1 17:12COLBlake Comeau: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:32WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:25COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:50WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 9:31COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:39WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:42COLBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P3 2:43WSHNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:43WSHAlex Chiasson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:43COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:43COLNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:43COLNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:59WSHDmitry Orlov: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:36WSHAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:38COLNail Yakupov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:11WSHMadison Bowey: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:53WSHBrooks Orpik: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Stephenson7:27
xG 0.81–0.16 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly – Connolly2:05
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly6:49
xG 0.09–0.10 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Wilson6:36
xG 0.06–0.10 (35%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Bowey9:46
xG 1.18–0.89 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Orlov10:29
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Orpik – Bowey2:06
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:10
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Andrighetto – Kamenev3:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Comeau – Nieto – Compher3:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher6:43
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard12:17
xG 1.19–0.26 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 3–1
- Barberio – Zadorov9:05
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov3:09
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).