Thu, Nov 16, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
St. Louis Blues 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 113 | 119 | 27 | 439 |
| EDM | 112 | 012 | 06 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:14STLVladimir SobotkaSHAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Paul Stastny · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:43EDMRyan StromePPAssists: Matt Benning, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 7:20STLAlexander SteenPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.60 xG2–1
- P3 5:44STLBrayden SchennAssists: Scottie Upshall · Snap, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 7:28STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:34STLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:34EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:18STLVince Dunn: Holding2 min
- P1 8:40EDMAdam Larsson: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 8:40STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:40EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59EDMEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59STLKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:59EDMIiro Pakarinen: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:35STLMagnus Paajarvi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:12STLVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:19EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:48EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:48EDMMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Sobotka11:25
xG 0.51–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Sundqvist7:42
xG 0.24–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak5:53
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:12
xG 0.68–0.82 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Parayko18:39
xG 0.81–0.68 (54%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn11:23
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson13:46
xG 0.88–0.80 (52%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Pakarinen2:41
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid13:49
xG 0.96–0.86 (53%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Strome – Puljujarvi7:03
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Caggiula4:42
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse15:00
xG 1.10–0.58 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Benning3:33
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Gryba9:24
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).