Thu, Nov 16, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 27 | 012 | 311 | 530 |
| VAN | 010 | 26 | 05 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22VGKDavid PerronAssists: Nate Schmidt, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:00VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Alex Tuch, Brendan Leipsic · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 12:31VANBrock BoeserUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 17:18VANBo HorvatAssists: Sam Gagner, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 6:27VGKErik HaulaGWGAssists: David Perron, James Neal · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 16:55VGKJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 17:58VGKReilly SmithENAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:56VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:02VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:00
xG 0.43–0.19 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula11:13
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Lindberg – Bellemare – Nosek7:41
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch13:00
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore17:24
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt14:05
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Engelland – McNabb3:29
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDorsett – Granlund – Gaunce3:00
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Gaunce7:03
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser6:15
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Gagner – Horvat6:46
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Biega – Del Zotto15:51
xG 0.27–0.33 (46%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Edler – Pouliot16:11
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 14–10goals 0–3
- Gudbranson – Hutton18:23
xG 0.45–0.69 (40%)attempts 11–19goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).