Sat, Nov 18, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 312 | 05 | 11 | 531 |
| PHI | 312 | 116 | 011 | 00 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32PHIBrandon ManningAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:13CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:22PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P1 16:08PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Jori Lehtera, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 6:07CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 9:51CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P2 14:02PHINolan PatrickAssists: Jakub Voracek, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
- P2 14:56CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:18CGYMichael FrolikGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:47CGYKris Versteeg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 16:54CGYMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:54PHITaylor Leier: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:02PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:53CGYTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:13PHIDale Weise: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:30PHIBrandon Manning: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:16PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Bench2 min
- P2 14:21PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:59CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Patrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:35
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Frolik – Backlund12:02
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett10:47
xG 0.14–0.46 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
- Stajan – Versteeg – Lazar8:12
xG 0.02–0.38 (6%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton14:25
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Brodie17:05
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Stone – Kulak14:04
xG 0.12–0.46 (20%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Raffl – Konecny12:19
xG 0.48–0.23 (68%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Leier6:25
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Weise – Patrick9:22
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier11:48
xG 0.36–0.69 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gostisbehere16:35
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Alt – Sanheim12:48
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Hagg – Provorov14:06
xG 0.49–0.64 (43%)attempts 15–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).