Sat, Nov 18, 2017·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 18 | 012 | 330 |
| DAL | 210 | 26 | 25 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36DALAntoine RousselAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:57DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Antoine Roussel, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 16:54EDMDrake CaggiulaSHAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 17:46EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 0:42EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 7:57DALDevin ShoreAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 18:39DALRadek FaksaGWGAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Jamie Oleksiak · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 13:30DALJamie BennAssists: Antoine Roussel, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.26 xG3–5
- P3 18:12DALJason SpezzaPPAssists: Ben Bishop · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (21)
- P1 2:04EDMEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:58DALRadek Faksa: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:58EDMMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:58EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:58DALGreg Pateryn: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:39EDMConnor McDavid: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:17EDMDarnell Nurse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:12DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00DALJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00EDMMatt Benning: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:00EDMMatt Benning: Misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:37DALBrett Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:03EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:15DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:01EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:44EDMMilan Lucic: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 16:44EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:44DALJohn Klingberg: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Khaira6:19
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Strome – Puljujarvi9:32
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl9:51
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – McDavid – Caggiula6:38
xG 0.09–0.77 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–4
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse16:36
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Klefbom – Benning9:47
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 11–5goals 0–3
- Russell – Gryba7:17
xG 0.44–0.84 (35%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Roussel5:24
xG 0.55–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 3–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Elie7:45
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Seguin – Ritchie – Janmark2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hanzal – Janmark2:38
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn12:58
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell11:18
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Johns – Oleksiak12:48
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).