Sat, Nov 18, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 211 | 413 | 631 |
| MTL | 016 | 010 | 07 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:07TORRon HainseyGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Dominic Moore · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 12:44TORNazem KadriAssists: Patrick Marleau, Frederik Andersen · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 0:25TORConnor BrownAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 8:11TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Dominic Moore · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P3 8:59TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Matt Martin · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–0
- P3 15:27TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:36MTLJordie Benn: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:05MTLShea Weber: Interference2 min
- P3 4:34MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:34MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:34TORNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:39MTLPaul Byron: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:39TORNikita Zaitsev: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:39TORNikita Zaitsev: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:36MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:36TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:36MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:36TORConnor Carrick: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner6:17
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Moore – van Riemsdyk – Bozak3:56
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Marleau – Hyman – Brown4:56
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri7:01
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev12:43
xG 0.87–0.38 (69%)attempts 15–15goals 3–0
- Carrick – Borgman11:44
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:00
xG 0.68–0.53 (57%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Shaw – Danault12:48
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon10:59
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Froese – de la Rose7:17
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Drouin13:39
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Mete4:00
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Alzner – Morrow5:44
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Weber – Benn11:49
xG 0.59–0.52 (53%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).