Sat, Nov 18, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 010 | 116 | 238 |
| PIT | 09 | 015 | 112 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32CHIGustav ForslingPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 8:00PITMatt HunwickSHAssists: Riley Sheahan, Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 8:21CHIArtem AnisimovPPGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:16PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:16CHIRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:08PITKris Letang: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:52PITMatt Murray: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:17CHIJan Rutta: Holding2 min
- P2 8:43PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:56CHIJohn Hayden: Interference2 min
- P3 2:44PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 5:04CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:43PITKris Letang: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Panik – Saad10:24
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Bouma – Wingels – Hayden5:28
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Sharp – Hartman – DeBrincat6:18
xG 0.12–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz8:24
xG 0.43–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Franson10:15
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Murphy7:11
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Rutta2:34
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestReaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl3:26
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary5:55
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin8:15
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Sheahan – Rust3:10
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Maatta13:17
xG 0.69–0.41 (62%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:53
xG 0.41–0.60 (40%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Cole9:29
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).