Sat, Nov 18, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 08 | 213 | 231 |
| NSH | 110 | 29 | 25 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 9:11NSHColton SissonsAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 10:38NSHAnthony BitettoGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 7:53NSHMattias EkholmPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 11:51NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: P.K. Subban, Alexei Emelin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 15:23COLAndrei MironovAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 18:15COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Andrei Mironov · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:09NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:34NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:28NSHMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:47NSHAustin Watson: Boarding5 min
- P1 11:47NSHAustin Watson: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 18:25COLAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:49COLAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:08COLAndrei Mironov: Holding2 min
- P2 14:12NSHMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min
- P2 16:45NSHKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:58COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYakupov – Toninato – Andrighetto6:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher6:11
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 2–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:22
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto5:41
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barrie2:02
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie3:48
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barberio2:33
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Jarnkrok – Sissons6:55
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:18
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala7:57
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Subban10:33
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Irwin – Bitetto13:35
xG 0.48–0.42 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Josi – Ekholm10:00
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).