Sat, Nov 18, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 111 | 18 | 13 | 431 |
| VAN | 17 | 210 | 06 | 00 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44VANBrock BoeserAssists: Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:34STLColton ParaykoAssists: Paul Stastny, Scottie Upshall · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:23VANMarkus GranlundSHAssists: Loui Eriksson, Alex Biega · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 10:58VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 13:10STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Paul Stastny, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 4:46STLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Paul Stastny, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:41STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:33STLVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min
- P2 4:17VANBen Hutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:34VANDerek Dorsett: Interference2 min
- P2 7:24STLAlex Pietrangelo: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:55VANBen Hutton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:09STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:19VANAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Sobotka11:19
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:54
xG 0.65–0.53 (55%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak6:53
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Sundqvist5:50
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bortuzzo – Dunn10:25
xG 0.19–0.18 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson17:37
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko14:50
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Virtanen7:16
xG 0.28–0.08 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser11:54
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Vanek – Eriksson – Granlund8:20
xG 0.07–0.20 (24%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Gagner – Sutter10:13
xG 0.22–0.41 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Del Zotto8:31
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Biega – Pouliot3:58
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton16:12
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).