Sun, Nov 19, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Colorado Avalanche 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 012 | 211 | 12 | 437 |
| DET | 17 | 17 | 110 | 00 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Dylan Larkin, Xavier Ouellet · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:44COLErik JohnsonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Dominic Toninato · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:03DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 11:07DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 13:45COLNail YakupovPPAssists: Colin Wilson, Erik Johnson · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:14COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 2:55COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:21DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:22DETAnthony Mantha: Holding2 min
- P2 8:35DETFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:46DETMike Green: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:03COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:37COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:43DETGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:18COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:31DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:34
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Andrighetto7:02
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:43
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher5:23
xG 0.08–0.24 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Zadorov8:20
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Girard15:04
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie3:50
xG 0.07–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha4:24
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar5:10
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening9:56
xG 0.12–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Mantha – Larkin2:28
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson13:37
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Green3:51
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Jensen9:01
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).