Sun, Nov 19, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Ottawa Senators 0, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 08 | 05 | 020 |
| NYR | 010 | 17 | 210 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:46NYRKevin HayesGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Jimmy Vesey · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 4:52NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Marc Staal, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 17:31NYRMika ZibanejadENAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:26NYRBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:17NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:24OTTJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min
- P2 0:58OTTBobby Ryan: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:15OTTDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P3 7:32NYRBrendan Smith: Interference5 min
- P3 7:32NYRBrendan Smith: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Stone – Pageau2:32
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel3:14
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – DiDomenico – Paul2:15
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Stone2:02
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Ceci3:20
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Ceci11:35
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson10:37
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:42
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Carey – Vesey – Nieves7:45
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Nash – Hayes – Fast9:26
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Grabner – Zuccarello – Miller9:38
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Smith11:26
xG 0.71–0.28 (71%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Holden11:57
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei11:40
xG 0.83–0.52 (62%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).