Sun, Nov 19, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Florida Panthers 2, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 112 | 124 | 252 |
| ANA | 16 | 111 | 111 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:57ANAJosh MansonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 5:22ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Chris Wagner, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 15:26FLAVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 1:30ANABrandon MontourPPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Sami Vatanen · Slap, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 17:01FLAKeith YandleAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:24FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:03FLAMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:03ANAMike Liambas: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:41ANAMike Liambas: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:58FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:10ANAAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:11ANAAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:08ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:27FLAVincent Trocheck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:27ANAJohn Gibson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:11ANABrandon Montour: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:31FLAConnor Brickley: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:31ANASami Vatanen: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:34FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Brickley – Trocheck7:54
xG 0.42–0.09 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – Sceviour – McCann7:47
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Haley – Balisy – Hunt3:50
xG 0.10–0.11 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Huberdeau – Barkov8:17
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad14:50
xG 1.01–0.44 (70%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Weegar – McCoshen6:23
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson13:03
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Vermette – Roy – Ritchie6:48
xG 0.02–0.24 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Grant – Rakell12:57
xG 0.11–0.43 (21%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Wagner8:32
xG 0.47–0.79 (37%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm10:51
xG 0.94–0.54 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen11:01
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour8:34
xG 0.06–0.62 (8%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).