Mon, Nov 20, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 112 | 25 | 329 |
| BUF | 07 | 010 | 215 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:14CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Markus Nutivaara · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 5:47CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 9:24CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 9:37BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Victor Antipin, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 16:28BUFEvander KaneAssists: Jack Eichel, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:13BUFJack Eichel: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 4:38CBJDavid Savard: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:30CBJJosh Anderson: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:05CBJSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 19:52BUFEvander Kane: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Larsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Panarin – Dubois12:07
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Schroeder – Milano – Hannikainen4:48
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:38
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
- Foligno – Motte – Bjorkstrand11:15
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Savard17:05
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara12:07
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Werenski17:06
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart3:58
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons3:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Eichel9:01
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – Larsson7:17
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – McCabe16:36
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Falk – Scandella13:51
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
- Gorges – Antipin12:11
xG 0.26–0.49 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).