Mon, Nov 20, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Calgary Flames 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 113 | 215 | 439 |
| WSH | 112 | 06 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02WSHLars EllerAssists: Jakub Vrana, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 4:49CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:22CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P3 4:38CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–1
- P3 6:39CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:10CGYTroy Brouwer: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:07WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P1 15:51WSHMadison Bowey: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:28WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01CGYKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:33CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:50WSHBrett Connolly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38WSHAlex Chiasson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett7:52
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Hamilton4:53
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:27
xG 0.24–0.63 (27%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk7:02
xG 0.12–0.63 (15%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:16
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 10–3goals 2–0
- Stone – Kulak11:23
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie15:13
xG 0.49–1.45 (25%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Wilson – Vrana7:27
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly9:15
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Stephenson8:19
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Connolly2:59
xG 0.02–0.26 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov13:27
xG 1.27–0.41 (76%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Orpik – Bowey2:32
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Chorney – Bowey7:18
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).