Tue, Nov 21, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 216 | 111 | 536 |
| PHI | 116 | 016 | 16 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:00PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Travis Konecny, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 9:42VANDaniel SedinAssists: Henrik Sedin, Jake Virtanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 10:01VANBrock BoeserAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:56VANBrock BoeserPPGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Snap, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 14:40VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Loui Eriksson, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 9:56PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 19:39VANLoui ErikssonENAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:23VANSam Gagner: Holding2 min
- P2 1:20PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:37VANSven Baertschi: Holding2 min
- P2 12:41PHIBrandon Manning: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Eriksson – Granlund9:14
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Virtanen9:13
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Gagner – Sutter – Gaunce10:08
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser13:13
xG 0.26–0.66 (28%)attempts 9–26goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Hutton17:57
xG 1.03–0.51 (67%)attempts 21–25goals 0–1
- Edler – Pouliot14:03
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Biega – Pouliot2:08
xG 0.04–0.19 (17%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Raffl – Konecny5:47
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Filppula – Lehtera – Konecny3:14
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Weal – Laughton – Leier2:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier14:35
xG 0.60–0.54 (52%)attempts 26–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Provorov13:59
xG 0.53–0.38 (58%)attempts 25–13goals 1–1
- Sanheim – Provorov2:34
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Manning – Hagg2:07
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).