Tue, Nov 21, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 07 | 315 | 329 |
| STL | 212 | 214 | 414 | 840 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:13STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:35STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Robert Bortuzzo · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:52STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 19:30STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 6:09EDMMilan LucicAssists: Connor McDavid, Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 7:39STLScottie UpshallAssists: Chris Thorburn, Kyle Brodziak · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 12:21STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 14:37STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–7
- P3 15:11EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Kris Russell, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.06 xG2–7
- P3 16:58STLPaul StastnyAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–8
- P3 18:49EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:49EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:28STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:55STLVladimir Tarasenko: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:55EDMMatt Benning: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:35EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:46EDMMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Khaira – Puljujarvi3:36
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira2:51
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Draisaitl5:14
xG 0.11–0.15 (43%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Maroon – Strome – Puljujarvi5:32
xG 0.26–0.32 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Russell – Gryba10:49
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 2–1
- Russell – Benning3:50
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom3:13
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:05
xG 1.48–0.33 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 4–0
- Paajarvi – Jaskin – Sundqvist11:34
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak9:22
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- Steen – Stastny – Sobotka11:49
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko15:36
xG 1.11–0.31 (78%)attempts 20–12goals 3–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn12:48
xG 0.96–0.25 (80%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson16:35
xG 1.14–0.51 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).