Wed, Nov 22, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Minnesota Wild 5, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 313 | 214 | 05 | 532 |
| BUF | 114 | 211 | 19 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:55BUFJack EichelAssists: Jason Pominville, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 8:59MINTyler EnnisAssists: Marcus Foligno, Charlie Coyle · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:28MINMikael GranlundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 14:28MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 2:01BUFJordan NolanAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jacob Josefson · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 7:57MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Eric Staal, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P2 15:56MINMikael GranlundPPGWGAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–2
- P2 18:25BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jake McCabe, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 13:55BUFJordan NolanAssists: Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:00BUFBenoit Pouliot: Charging2 min · PPG
- P2 2:23MINMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P2 8:25MINMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:18BUFJosh Gorges: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:56BUFNathan Beaulieu: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:41MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Niederreiter11:58
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Ennis – Foligno – Coyle11:11
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Granlund12:30
xG 0.44–0.23 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Cullen – Stewart – Mitchell6:11
xG 0.02–0.53 (4%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:00
xG 0.80–0.35 (70%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Brodin – Olofsson2:38
xG 0.07–0.09 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba17:18
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 12–18goals 2–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Josefson – Nolan9:07
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 2–1
- Larsson – Girgensons – Criscuolo2:20
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart12:12
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel13:35
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Antipin14:54
xG 0.46–0.22 (67%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Gorges – Beaulieu11:43
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Falk – Scandella13:02
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).