Wed, Nov 22, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Edmonton Oilers 6, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 28 | 314 | 16 | 628 |
| DET | 211 | 03 | 08 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:25EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Connor McDavid, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 11:05EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Yohann Auvitu · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 18:25DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 10:24EDMJujhar KhairaGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Yohann Auvitu · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 14:22EDMMark LetestuAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.28 xG4–2
- P2 18:16EDMDrake CaggiulaAssists: Connor McDavid, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 18:55EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.02 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:14EDMPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:17EDMJujhar Khaira: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:49DETJonathan Ericsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Letestu – Kassian7:58
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Strome – Khaira – Puljujarvi11:05
xG 0.46–0.09 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl12:11
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Lucic – McDavid – Caggiula14:52
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Klefbom16:02
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Benning – Auvitu12:56
xG 0.79–0.31 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 3–0
- Larsson – Nurse21:31
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Tatar – Larkin3:08
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening11:04
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist2:56
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Wilson – Athanasiou2:13
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – DeKeyser2:06
xG 0.08–0.01 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Green2:38
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Daley – Green2:28
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).