Wed, Nov 22, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 012 | 123 | 02 | 1 | 144 |
| FLA | 015 | 111 | 013 | 04 | 2 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:16FLANick BjugstadAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Henrik Haapala · Deflected, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 13:58TORNazem KadriAssists: Connor Brown, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 3. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. TOR Patrick Marleau scored
- 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 7. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 8. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:21FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P2 0:45FLAJamie McGinn: Holding2 min
- P2 8:36TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:51TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:33FLAJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:37TORNazem Kadri: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews13:18
xG 1.48–0.41 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Nylander12:05
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Kadri2:51
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Soshnikov4:26
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly16:31
xG 1.36–0.42 (76%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev19:21
xG 1.36–0.69 (66%)attempts 25–20goals 1–0
- Carrick – Borgman11:52
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Haley – Brickley – Balisy5:22
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Trocheck – Haapala11:19
xG 0.35–0.48 (43%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- McGinn – Sceviour – McCann11:37
xG 0.27–0.62 (31%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov14:05
xG 0.70–1.65 (30%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weegar – McCoshen11:00
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Yandle – Ekblad17:32
xG 0.60–1.24 (33%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson18:58
xG 0.76–1.45 (34%)attempts 19–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).