Wed, Nov 22, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 210 | 016 | 00 | 338 |
| NYI | 116 | 213 | 08 | 12 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02PHITaylor LeierAssists: Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 18:53NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 0:46PHIMichael RafflAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 7:13NYIJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:05NYIJoshua Ho-SangAssists: Adam Pelech, Anthony Beauvillier · Tip-in, 0.00 xG2–3
- P2 13:54PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:32NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:04PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:59PHISamuel Morin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:15NYIJason Chimera: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:09PHIBrandon Manning: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:54PHISamuel Morin: Interference2 min
- P3 14:30NYIJason Chimera: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier12:23
xG 1.13–0.57 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Filppula – Raffl – Konecny7:53
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Martel – Patrick4:48
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Weal – Laughton – Leier4:44
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Sanheim15:31
xG 2.07–0.63 (77%)attempts 24–17goals 1–1
- Hagg – Provorov16:01
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee13:53
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal11:08
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier8:55
xG 0.49–0.85 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas9:56
xG 0.17–0.98 (15%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy15:07
xG 0.63–0.73 (46%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Mayfield10:55
xG 0.78–1.08 (42%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- de Haan – Pelech16:12
xG 0.55–1.02 (35%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).