Wed, Nov 22, 2017·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Montréal Canadiens 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 09 | 112 | 01 | 0 | 229 |
| NSH | 19 | 08 | 113 | 03 | 1 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:47MTLJordie BennAssists: Charles Hudon, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:58NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 3:16NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:04MTLJoe MorrowUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Kevin Fiala stopped
- 2. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. NSH Kyle Turris scored
- 6. MTL Max Pacioretty stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:03NSHRyan Johansen: Tripping2 min
- P1 1:58NSHNick Bonino: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:38MTLAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:29MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42NSHViktor Arvidsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:20NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Holding2 min
- P3 1:32MTLAndrew Shaw: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:10MTLBrendan Gallagher: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:10MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:10NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:10NSHKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:10MTLKarl Alzner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Gallagher – Hudon9:59
xG 1.08–0.29 (79%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Byron – Shaw – Danault11:14
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – de la Rose3:44
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Galchenyuk – Drouin8:38
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner11:12
xG 1.14–0.29 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Morrow – Jerabek2:08
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Morrow2:43
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala12:27
xG 0.42–0.21 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Forsberg3:29
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Salomaki – Aberg – Gaudreau6:17
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:12
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestIrwin – Bitetto11:13
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban16:38
xG 0.53–0.69 (44%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Josi – Ekholm13:20
xG 0.54–1.06 (34%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).