Wed, Nov 22, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 020 | 112 | 317 | 449 |
| ANA | 17 | 15 | 07 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:16ANAJosh MansonAssists: Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 5:59ANADerek GrantPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.38 xG0–2
- P2 19:07VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: David Perron, Shea Theodore · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 2:21VGKColin MillerAssists: David Perron, James Neal · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 11:18VGKJames NealGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:00VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:25VGKWilliam Carrier: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:25ANAMike Liambas: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:18VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:44ANAMike Liambas: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:47VGKDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:06ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:49VGKErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:02ANAMike Liambas: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:01VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Wagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:03
xG 1.20–0.14 (90%)attempts 25–4goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Carrier – Bellemare4:45
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch9:30
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Neal – Perron – Haula14:19
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore15:04
xG 1.32–0.44 (75%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt19:13
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt11:44
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Liambas – Shaw – Rasmussen2:02
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Roy – Ritchie9:37
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 3–15goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Wagner12:35
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Perry – Grant – Rakell13:17
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 6–15goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Manson – Lindholm16:08
xG 0.71–0.82 (46%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
- Fowler – Montour14:37
xG 0.52–1.11 (32%)attempts 9–25goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen12:28
xG 0.00–0.66 (0%)attempts 3–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).