Fri, Nov 24, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 17 | 111 | 216 | 13 | 537 |
| PHI | 010 | 47 | 012 | 01 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:43NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Andrew Ladd, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 3:49PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Robert Hagg · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:28PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Nolan Patrick · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 7:56NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 12:11PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 12:30PHISean CouturierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 4:12NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Joshua Ho-Sang · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–4
- P3 12:11NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–4
- OT 2:44NYINick LeddyGWGAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, John Tavares · Snap, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:56PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:01NYIDennis Seidenberg: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 17:42PHINolan Patrick: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:20NYIAndrew Ladd: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:20PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:42PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:56NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal10:42
xG 0.82–0.23 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee13:03
xG 0.72–0.56 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Cizikas8:58
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier9:50
xG 0.16–0.39 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Mayfield12:35
xG 1.02–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- de Haan – Pelech16:21
xG 0.80–0.42 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Boychuk – Leddy17:48
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 13–24goals 0–2
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Filppula – Raffl – Konecny9:37
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Weal – Laughton – Leier3:39
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Martel – Patrick7:41
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier11:19
xG 0.53–0.92 (37%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Manning – Gostisbehere2:42
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hagg – Provorov16:29
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 17–16goals 2–0
- Manning – Sanheim15:19
xG 0.24–1.18 (17%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).