Fri, Nov 24, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 29 | 011 | 010 | 00 | 0 | 230 |
| MIN | 17 | 111 | 03 | 06 | 2 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:23COLJ.T. CompherSHAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 15:54COLBlake ComeauAssists: Carl Soderberg, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 5:02MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. MIN Charlie Coyle scored
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. MIN Chris Stewart scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:23COLNail Yakupov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:12COLBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05MINMike Reilly: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Compher10:35
xG 0.28–0.04 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Andrighetto5:49
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:56
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto9:00
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Mironov8:13
xG 0.29–0.01 (97%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:50
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie4:28
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Cullen – Stewart – Foligno5:37
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Koivu – Winnik – Granlund14:07
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter13:06
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Ennis – Coyle – Mitchell7:56
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon22:32
xG 0.53–0.42 (56%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba11:42
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – Dumba4:37
xG 0.03–0.07 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).