Fri, Nov 24, 2017·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Washington Capitals 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 09 | 010 | 126 |
| WSH | 116 | 114 | 18 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 18:36WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:36WSHDevante Smith-PellyGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 17:52WSHJay BeagleENAssists: Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:44WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:27TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:37TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:15TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:06WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:11WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Callahan – Paquette9:31
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Palat – Gourde – Point12:07
xG 0.55–0.93 (37%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov13:42
xG 0.59–1.04 (36%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Koekkoek2:03
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – Sergachev2:47
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman3:00
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson10:51
xG 1.07–0.62 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Connolly9:18
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Stephenson6:33
xG 0.06–0.30 (16%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana13:13
xG 0.50–0.77 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov18:31
xG 1.71–0.93 (65%)attempts 27–19goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson14:46
xG 0.51–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Chorney – Bowey9:08
xG 0.29–0.92 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).