Fri, Nov 24, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 04 | 011 | 115 | 130 |
| BUF | 011 | 113 | 27 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:16BUFJacob JosefsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jordan Nolan · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 0:43BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 19:09BUFKyle OkposoENAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–3
- P3 19:40EDMYohann AuvituUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:36EDMEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:22EDMPatrick Maroon: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:53BUFKyle Criscuolo: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:46EDMMark Letestu: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:02BUFKyle Okposo: Holding2 min
- P3 6:16BUFNathan Beaulieu: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Letestu – Kassian6:51
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Lucic – McDavid3:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Strome – Khaira – Puljujarvi10:34
xG 0.26–0.25 (50%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl10:48
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Benning14:36
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Gryba – Auvitu8:39
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Larsson – Nurse15:44
xG 0.52–1.08 (33%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel9:32
xG 0.55–0.34 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Criscuolo7:53
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart9:05
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Josefson – Nolan8:47
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen15:09
xG 1.07–0.52 (67%)attempts 21–25goals 1–0
- Falk – Beaulieu9:25
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- McCabe – Antipin12:32
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).