Fri, Nov 24, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 4, Vegas Golden Knights 5 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 18 | 315 | 03 | 00 | 426 |
| VGK | 212 | 210 | 09 | 12 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Cody Eakin, Brendan Leipsic · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:16VGKJames NealPPAssists: Erik Haula, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 17:08SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 0:10VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 6:55VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 8:08SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.01 xG2–4
- P2 15:34SJSChris TierneyAssists: Justin Braun, Joel Ward · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–4
- P2 19:10SJSMikkel BoedkerPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- OT 1:21VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, James Neal · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:15SJSJustin Braun: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:43SJSJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:59SJSTimo Meier: Interference2 min
- P2 12:53VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:46VGKCody Eakin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:07SJSTomas Hertl: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Tierney – O'Regan3:48
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Couture – Donskoi – Hertl13:17
xG 0.69–0.69 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Hansen – O'Regan – Carpenter2:23
xG 0.02–0.08 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hansen – Boedker – Tierney3:50
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun17:49
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Vlasic – DeMelo2:28
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo10:20
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:45
xG 1.17–0.70 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Lindberg – Carrier – Bellemare5:43
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Haula – Leipsic4:23
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula6:29
xG 0.20–0.18 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt17:41
xG 0.91–0.45 (67%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt14:18
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Engelland – Theodore14:19
xG 0.46–0.78 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).