Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 110 | 14 | 421 |
| TOR | 011 | 011 | 27 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:43WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:13WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 11:02WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 1:24TORJake GardinerAssists: Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 6:09TORNikita ZaitsevAssists: William Nylander, Dominic Moore · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 19:51WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:03WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:05TORRon Hainsey: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:55TORPatrick Marleau: Interference2 min
- P2 11:34TORMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Beagle – Chiasson – Stephenson10:27
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana11:30
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:33
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith-Pelly – Graovac7:53
xG 0.21–0.74 (22%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChorney – Bowey9:48
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Orlov20:54
xG 0.52–0.87 (37%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Orpik – Carlson17:08
xG 0.16–0.75 (18%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:56
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews6:27
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews7:23
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Moore – Martin – Nylander2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Borgman12:37
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:07
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Rielly14:51
xG 0.53–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).