Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 015 | 011 | 036 |
| MTL | 114 | 19 | 13 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54MTLJeff PetryPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 13:58MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P3 8:27MTLPaul ByronSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.26 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:40BUFJason Pominville: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:36MTLTomas Plekanec: Delaying game2 min
- P2 8:51BUFSeth Griffith: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:52MTLAndrew Shaw: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Kane – Eichel11:21
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Nolan2:51
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart2:25
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Larsson – Griffith – Girgensons2:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen15:39
xG 1.34–0.96 (58%)attempts 23–21goals 0–1
- McCabe – Antipin13:14
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Gorges – Beaulieu12:47
xG 0.21–0.85 (20%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Galchenyuk – Drouin10:19
xG 0.77–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon13:06
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault12:40
xG 0.52–0.20 (73%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – de la Rose5:22
xG 0.05–0.55 (9%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner13:42
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 11–24goals 0–0
- Benn – Mete3:05
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Morrow11:18
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).