Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 16 | 19 | 224 |
| OTT | 08 | 08 | 116 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:06NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 14:10NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 15:39OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:39OTTDion Phaneuf: Elbowing2 min
- P1 15:20OTTDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:23NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:07NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40OTTJohnny Oduya: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:00NYIJohnny Boychuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:33OTTFredrik Claesson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19NYICalvin de Haan: Interference2 min
- P3 2:39OTTAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:43NYIJordan Eberle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:31NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Eberle – Barzal7:08
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Nelson – Quine – Ho-Sang5:16
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Clutterbuck – Quine2:22
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nelson – Barzal2:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy12:53
xG 0.80–0.44 (65%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- de Haan – Pelech10:42
xG 0.26–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hickey – Mayfield12:32
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Pyatt – Pageau2:27
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Brassard – Smith5:49
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Burrows – Dumont – Dzingel2:40
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Duchene – Stone2:31
xG 0.01–0.06 (12%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oduya – Harpur2:40
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Claesson – Harpur3:29
xG 0.04–0.01 (72%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Ceci8:22
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).