Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 08 | 19 | 13 | 432 |
| DET | 17 | 014 | 213 | 00 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34DETDavid BoothAssists: Luke Glendening, Xavier Ouellet · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:12NJDBrian BoyleAssists: Steven Santini, Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:21NJDTaylor HallPPAssists: Will Butcher · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 6:12NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 6:50DETAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 8:16DETDavid BoothAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 2:32NJDBrian GibbonsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:44DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:57DETNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:45NJDMiles Wood: Holding2 min
- P3 3:56NJDAdam Henrique: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:07DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Coleman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier2:53
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Bratt – Hischier8:26
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hall – Wood2:42
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Gibbons – Coleman – Noesen8:24
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher10:40
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Severson15:38
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Greene – Santini14:57
xG 0.55–0.57 (49%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Helm8:06
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Booth – Nyquist2:30
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Mantha – Larkin12:16
xG 0.76–0.86 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Athanasiou9:16
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Jensen13:55
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Green – DeKeyser17:49
xG 0.77–0.86 (47%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Ouellet14:49
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).