Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 3, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 19 | 28 | 325 |
| STL | 312 | 019 | 39 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15STLPaul StastnyPPAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alexander Steen · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 11:09STLDmitrij JaskinAssists: Chris Thorburn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:54STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 15:02MINCharlie CoyleSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 2:09STLKyle BrodziakSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 3:31MINZack MitchellPPAssists: Daniel Winnik, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 8:52MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–4
- P3 11:36STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 14:12STLSammy BlaisPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.14 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:47STLJaden Schwartz: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:53MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P1 5:10MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:12STLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:12MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:28MINKyle Quincey: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:52MINMarcus Foligno: Elbowing2 min
- P2 13:29MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:38STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:14STLScottie Upshall: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:23MINRyan Suter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:54MINJason Zucker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:30MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Niederreiter4:21
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter4:19
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Granlund4:08
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Winnik – Ennis – Mitchell3:55
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:01
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Quincey – Dumba2:46
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Brodin – Olofsson2:47
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Upshall – Brodziak2:42
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:47
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Jaskin – Sundqvist – Blais6:43
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Jaskin2:59
xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko16:01
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn10:51
xG 0.72–0.49 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:55
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).