Sat, Nov 25, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 27 | 013 | 328 |
| COL | 07 | 112 | 17 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:23CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 14:32COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 19:09CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 19:31CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P3 17:06COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Mark Barberio · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:54COLSven Andrighetto: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:07COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:03CGYJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:17CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min
- P2 13:31CGYMatt Bartkowski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:33COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:45
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Jagr – Jankowski – Bennett6:38
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:12
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Stajan – Brouwer – Hamilton5:45
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton16:25
xG 0.96–0.57 (63%)attempts 23–18goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie14:22
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Stone – Brodie2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestYakupov – Andrighetto – Compher2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Compher – MacKinnon3:44
xG 0.06–0.08 (41%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Andrighetto3:21
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Compher3:52
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barberio2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Barberio – Zadorov8:14
xG 0.16–0.14 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Mironov2:14
xG 0.06–0.06 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).