Sun, Nov 26, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 19 | 112 | 113 | 01 | 0 | 335 |
| CAR | 115 | 111 | 110 | 00 | 2 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37CARJosh JoorisAssists: Marcus Kruger, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:36NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Juuse Saros · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:32NSHMattias EkholmPPAssists: Roman Josi, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 11:37CARVictor RaskAssists: Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 5:49CARJustin WilliamsPPAssists: Derek Ryan, Victor Rask · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 11:15NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Brock McGinn stopped
- 2. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 3. CAR Sebastian Aho scored
- 4. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 5. CAR Teuvo Teravainen scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:23NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:58CARJustin Williams: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:39NSHAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P3 4:47NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 2:03CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:40NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala12:13
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Sissons13:29
xG 0.76–0.81 (48%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson14:45
xG 0.80–0.93 (46%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Watson – Aberg – Gaudreau5:50
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ekholm20:30
xG 1.18–0.95 (55%)attempts 27–21goals 0–1
- Emelin – Subban18:00
xG 1.16–1.47 (44%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
- Irwin – Bitetto12:55
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Aho13:30
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:17
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm10:31
xG 0.96–0.83 (54%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Williams – Skinner – Ryan12:09
xG 0.56–1.20 (32%)attempts 14–21goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:12
xG 1.00–0.52 (66%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin2:02
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fleury15:40
xG 0.88–1.04 (46%)attempts 16–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).