Mon, Nov 27, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 016 | 115 | 27 | 338 |
| NJD | 03 | 07 | 215 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:20FLAAleksander BarkovSHAssists: Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 2:20NJDNico HischierAssists: Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:07FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 8:19NJDJesper BrattUnassisted · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 12:45FLAJared McCannGWGAssists: Dryden Hunt, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:57FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:45NJDAndy Greene: Interference2 min
- P1 18:57NJDAdam Henrique: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:57FLAJamie McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:27NJDBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:03FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:53NJDBrian Gibbons: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:15NJDTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:15FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Bjugstad – Trocheck7:38
xG 0.43–0.26 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:29
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Malgin9:23
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- McCann – Hunt – Haapala7:13
xG 0.11–0.22 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Pysyk11:51
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Matheson – Weegar14:48
xG 0.79–0.77 (51%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad16:00
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHall – Zacha – Hischier4:09
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 10–1goals 1–1
- Stafford – Zajac – Henrique8:29
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Noesen – Bratt2:43
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Gibbons – Coleman – Noesen6:01
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson13:29
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher9:07
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Moore2:37
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).