Mon, Nov 27, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 316 | 16 | 00 | 432 |
| PIT | 117 | 014 | 319 | 12 | 552 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:03PITJake GuentzelAssists: Justin Schultz, Matt Murray · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:40PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Nolan Patrick, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 15:05PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Brandon Manning, Michael Raffl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 19:28PHISean CouturierAssists: Ivan Provorov, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 1:07PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 1:46PITBryan RustUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
- P3 16:19PHIMichael RafflUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 18:56PITJake GuentzelAssists: Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 1:48PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:57PITCarter Rowney: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:20PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:51PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:30PITOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:07PHIJori Lehtera: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:40PHIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:10PHIRobert Hagg: Interference2 min
- P3 11:26PITCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P3 19:45PHIJakub Voracek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Martel – Patrick8:04
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Filppula – Raffl – Konecny9:14
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Lehtera – Weise – Laughton6:08
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier15:04
xG 0.64–1.05 (38%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Provorov17:07
xG 1.00–0.76 (57%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Manning – Sanheim8:58
xG 0.32–0.45 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Manning – Gostisbehere2:05
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Rust – Rowney10:35
xG 1.26–0.20 (87%)attempts 25–3goals 1–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary13:32
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – McKegg – Kuhnhackl4:48
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Crosby – Kessel – Guentzel2:27
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin5:47
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Maatta – Ruhwedel3:13
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Schultz12:05
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).