Mon, Nov 27, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 118 | 014 | 138 |
| MTL | 211 | 07 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 8:10MTLJonathan DrouinPPGWGAssists: Jeff Petry, Alex Galchenyuk · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 16:08CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Josh Anderson, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:36MTLAndrew ShawENAssists: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.68 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:45MTLPhillip Danault: Holding2 min
- P1 8:03CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:39CBJDavid Savard: Interference2 min
- P2 0:27MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:58MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:15MTLByron Froese: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:55CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:13MTLJacob de la Rose: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Jenner – Motte6:16
xG 0.38–0.16 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Milano7:38
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Schroeder – Sedlak – Motte3:46
xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Anderson – Panarin – Dubois11:03
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara14:14
xG 1.01–0.81 (55%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Jones – Werenski14:04
xG 0.60–0.50 (55%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard12:26
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Froese – de la Rose6:12
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Hudon9:10
xG 0.53–0.52 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Shaw – Danault9:42
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Galchenyuk – Drouin7:11
xG 0.14–0.55 (20%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Jerabek3:52
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Morrow – Jerabek3:00
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Jerabek5:27
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).