Mon, Nov 27, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 2, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 26 | 05 | 08 | 219 |
| WPG | 27 | 210 | 311 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01MINJason ZuckerAssists: Charlie Coyle, Gustav Olofsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:54MINChris StewartAssists: Matt Cullen, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 15:47WPGJoel ArmiaAssists: Matt Hendricks, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P1 17:15WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:57WPGJacob TroubaGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 14:19WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Joel Armia · Slap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 5:13WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 6:18WPGBryan LittleAssists: Ben Chiarot, Nikolaj Ehlers · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 13:26WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Kyle Connor, Dmitry Kulikov · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–7
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:40MINKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00MINMathew Dumba: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:03MINRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P2 18:38WPGMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:38MINDaniel Winnik: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:44MINDaniel Winnik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:18MINKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18MINKyle Quincey: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18WPGDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18MINChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:18MINKyle Quincey: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:54WPGJoel Armia: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Coyle – Mitchell7:42
xG 0.19–0.06 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Winnik – Ennis – Mitchell2:53
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Niederreiter2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Ennis – Niederreiter8:44
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Olofsson13:15
xG 0.39–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba2:26
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba2:41
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Perreault – Armia7:45
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Lowry – Copp – Tanev10:32
xG 0.15–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:03
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:35
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey15:05
xG 0.82–0.16 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:41
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Myers – Kulikov14:46
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).