Tue, Nov 28, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Florida Panthers 5, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 36 | 112 | 19 | 527 |
| NYR | 013 | 316 | 18 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:35FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 16:47FLAMicheal HaleyAssists: Keith Yandle, Colton Sceviour · Snap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 4:04NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 8:36FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Mike Matheson, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–1
- P2 9:26NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Chris Kreider, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 11:16NYRChris KreiderAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 13:28NYRChris KreiderAssists: David Desharnais, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- P3 18:51FLADenis MalginGWGAssists: Mark Pysyk, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:59NYRBrady Skjei: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:53NYRSteven Kampfer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 10:53FLAJames Reimer: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:18FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:13NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P2 18:24FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:41FLAAlexander Petrovic: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Sceviour – Trocheck2:01
xG 0.31–0.10 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McCann – Hunt – Haapala6:59
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- McGinn – Bjugstad – Trocheck12:12
xG 0.44–0.49 (48%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley4:07
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Weegar15:11
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk13:49
xG 0.09–0.58 (14%)attempts 5–16goals 0–2
- Yandle – Ekblad16:33
xG 0.40–1.05 (27%)attempts 18–20goals 2–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Zuccarello – Miller11:38
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Nash – Hayes – Vesey12:17
xG 0.65–0.52 (55%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Carey – Fast – Nieves10:55
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Kreider – Buchnevich10:29
xG 0.80–0.80 (50%)attempts 9–15goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Skjei16:44
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Staal – Kampfer10:41
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 8–11goals 2–1
- Smith – Holden17:12
xG 1.03–1.07 (49%)attempts 24–15goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).