Wed, Nov 29, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 213 | 07 | 330 |
| STL | 012 | 016 | 211 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17ANAAntoine VermetteAssists: Kevin Roy, Francois Beauchemin · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 0:33ANAKevin RoyPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 3:01ANAAntoine VermettePPGWGAssists: Chris Wagner, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–0
- P3 16:12STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Dmitrij Jaskin, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 19:43STLKyle BrodziakAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:09ANAAntoine Vermette: Interference2 min
- P1 11:00STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:02ANAAntoine Vermette: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:44STLPatrik Berglund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:55STLPatrik Berglund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:17ANACorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:19STLVladimir Sobotka: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:25STLBrayden Schenn: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 13:25ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wagner won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Shaw – Roy5:06
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Vermette – Roy – Kossila2:21
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Wagner5:06
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Shaw3:38
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Vatanen8:05
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler9:58
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Manson – Lindholm13:01
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Sobotka10:48
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak4:19
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Jaskin – Blais5:04
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:42
xG 0.24–0.50 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko5:01
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson5:36
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo4:36
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).