Wed, Nov 29, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 013 | 113 | 00 | 233 |
| COL | 110 | 09 | 16 | 11 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Brandon Tanev · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 13:23COLAlexander KerfootPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 4:08WPGBryan LittleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P3 11:57COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Blake Comeau, Gabriel Bourque · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 0:59COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:05COLDominic Toninato: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:08WPGKyle Connor: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:52WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:36COLBlake Comeau: Holding2 min
- P2 9:36WPGTyler Myers: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 10:29COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:40WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:47COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:00WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:00COLMatt Nieto: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:18WPGJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:51COLMark Barberio: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:52WPGJoel Armia: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev7:26
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:16
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Ehlers2:18
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine8:01
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey14:20
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:43
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov10:09
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto8:42
xG 0.14–0.10 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Bourque – Yakupov – Toninato2:45
xG 0.03–0.02 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost9:00
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:06
xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Zadorov9:16
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Johnson – Barrie3:06
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov2:15
xG 0.03–0.02 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).