Thu, Nov 30, 2017·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 011 | 29 | 231 |
| MIN | 012 | 113 | 37 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:01MINMikael GranlundAssists: Mike Reilly, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 2:42VGKBrayden McNabbAssists: Stefan Matteau · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 4:39VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 5:27MINJonas BrodinAssists: Daniel Winnik, Charlie Coyle · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:05MINEric StaalGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:54MINEric StaalENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.54 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:51MINGustav Olofsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:45VGKJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:02MINCharlie Coyle: Interference2 min
- P2 13:21MINTyler Ennis: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:59VGKDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMatteau – Bellemare – Nosek7:55
xG 0.63–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:33
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Neal – Haula – Tuch11:21
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Leipsic10:29
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 8–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller12:35
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 2–1
- Schmidt – Theodore2:19
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sbisa – McNabb2:30
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foligno – Niederreiter13:23
xG 0.72–0.14 (84%)attempts 26–5goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Granlund7:45
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Winnik – Coyle – Mitchell2:16
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund6:01
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Murphy17:12
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Dumba18:48
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 24–13goals 1–2
- Reilly – Olofsson10:44
xG 0.28–0.95 (23%)attempts 6–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).