Thu, Nov 30, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 316 | 111 | 210 | 637 |
| EDM | 113 | 219 | 113 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:55TORDominic MooreUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 12:37EDMMark LetestuAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 13:06TORMatt MartinAssists: Dominic Moore, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 6:38EDMZack KassianAssists: Jujhar Khaira, Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 17:32EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 18:29TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 3:01EDMKris RussellAssists: Darnell Nurse, Mark Letestu · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- P3 18:55TORPatrick MarleauGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 19:59TORNazem KadriENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.68 xG6–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:54EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:44EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:44TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:49TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 11:44TORRoman Polak: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:22EDMEric Gryba: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:16
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri13:51
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Moore – Martin – Nylander6:54
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Hyman – Brown – Matthews13:53
xG 0.87–1.37 (39%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev18:12
xG 1.47–1.25 (54%)attempts 24–22goals 0–2
- Polak – Borgman12:08
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 16–18goals 2–1
- Hainsey – Rielly16:05
xG 0.90–0.84 (52%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Maroon – Nugent-Hopkins – Slepyshev11:27
xG 0.92–1.00 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Strome – Draisaitl – Caggiula10:42
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Letestu – Kassian – Khaira9:19
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 3–2
- Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi14:54
xG 0.69–0.89 (43%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Nurse20:32
xG 1.67–1.10 (60%)attempts 29–25goals 3–1
- Gryba – Auvitu7:04
xG 0.46–0.47 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Klefbom – Benning16:54
xG 0.38–1.43 (21%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).