Fri, Dec 1, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 311 | 112 | 02 | 425 |
| BUF | 09 | 016 | 09 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23PITTom KuhnhacklGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 6:38PITSidney CrosbyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 18:05PITJake GuentzelAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 19:20PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Conor Sheary, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:22PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P2 7:09PITMatt Hunwick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:40BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:46PITCarl Hagelin: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:13PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P3 15:22BUFEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:22PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Kuhnhackl – Rowney5:32
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Sheahan – Rust8:59
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Guentzel12:44
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Sheary11:32
xG 0.36–0.69 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Maatta12:51
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:58
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Cole – Schultz11:34
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKane – Reinhart – Eichel12:55
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Criscuolo8:32
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Moulson – Okposo – O'Reilly2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Moulson – Larsson – Girgensons2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Beaulieu13:45
xG 0.80–0.15 (85%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen14:05
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- McCabe – Antipin12:21
xG 0.16–0.47 (26%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).