Fri, Dec 1, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 110 | 17 | 428 |
| STL | 020 | 110 | 010 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:43LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Nicholas Shore, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 6:12LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Alex Iafallo, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 15:17STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Colton Parayko, Vince Dunn · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 18:56LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Alec Martinez, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 10:54LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tanner Pearson, Jake Muzzin · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:22LAKJonny Brodzinski: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:11STLAlexander Steen: Holding2 min
- P2 8:15LAKDerek Forbort: Interference2 min
- P2 8:42STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:19STLAlex Pietrangelo: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:38LAKDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:04LAKNicholas Shore: Interference2 min
- P2 18:15STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min
- P3 3:19LAKMarian Gaborik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Shore – Pearson4:13
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Lewis – Kempe6:03
xG 0.10–0.19 (35%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:33
xG 0.64–0.75 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Dowd – Brodzinski5:23
xG 0.01–0.34 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez2:56
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Martinez – Forbort4:44
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty9:20
xG 0.61–0.63 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Sobotka – Berglund4:19
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:56
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak2:01
xG 0.34–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Sundqvist4:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo6:06
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Dunn2:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Parayko6:18
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).