Fri, Dec 1, 2017·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 217 | 07 | 27 | 431 |
| WPG | 114 | 115 | 59 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49WPGTyler MyersPPAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 12:51VGKCody EakinAssists: Brendan Leipsic, Colin Miller · Slap, 0.42 xG1–1
- P1 16:49VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Nate Schmidt, Reilly Smith · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 13:21WPGMatt HendricksAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 0:33WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 2:48WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 6:16WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Josh Morrissey · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 6:35VGKErik HaulaAssists: Alex Tuch, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 14:53WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
- P3 16:16VGKColin MillerAssists: Jon Merrill, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–6
- P3 18:52WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.62 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:17VGKCody Eakin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:11WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:30WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P2 14:13VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:39VGKOscar Lindberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54VGKColin Miller: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:07WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:48VGKBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:17WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:18WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:01
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Neal – Haula – Tuch10:59
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Leipsic8:57
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Matteau – Bellemare – Nosek6:41
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Schmidt10:58
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore11:35
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev10:12
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine9:10
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Perreault – Armia8:07
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:27
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Myers – Kulikov10:55
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot14:39
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Trouba – Morrissey14:44
xG 0.63–0.92 (41%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).